We’re back to the exciting first Friday of the month and the market awaits this afternoons NFP and unemployment rates. Previously we saw just 36k increase in the NFP with a 9% unemployment rate. This low NFP was put down to bad weather in the States and now todays expectation is much higher at 185k increase in jobs. Off this forecast we have seen USD buying against the GB Pound this morning, with the pair dropping from the 1.62 highs. Note that the Euro is a different story following Tichets hawkish comments on ECB rate yesterday, hence EURUSD has held up so far nearing the big figure 1.4000.

This high NFP expectation following the low figure for the previous month leaves us with a very exhilerating day to come, will NFP meet these expectations? Employment figures are being watched closely since the market crowd will not be convinced that the US is on the road to recovery until they see consistently good data. A strong figure seen today could be the start of more USD buying, however note that on it’s release the market may be very volatile. My opinion is that the true price direction will be clearer Monday morning,

early London session and this is a better time to trade off the news, since Friday afternoon trading after the NFP can be erratic.

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Zoe Fiddes, easy-forex® London Offices