GREEK AUSTERITY VOTE LOOMS – EURO FINDS SUPPORT FOR SELLERS
The euro has edged cautiously higher versus the dollar over recent trading sessions, but met with resistance around the $1.4330 level as markets wait to see if the Greek parliament will approve austerity measures that are necessary for the country’s next round of funding from the EU/IMF. The country is to be hit by a 42 hour general strike today and tomorrow, also leaving investors cautious. It was originally thought that the vote would be today but it may not take place until tomorrow or Thursday at this stage. As well as hopes that the vote will succeed, the euro is also higher on investor optimism regarding the likelihood of a plan with banks and other private investors to roll over Greek debt, thereby reducing the chance of default.
The dollar is also being overshadowed by further evidence that the pace of US economic activity was soft in Q2. Personal income and spending data for May released yesterday were weaker than expected, breaking a 10 month rising trend as higher gasoline prices hit consumption activity. US data to watch today include the Case Shiller house price index for April, as well as consumer confidence for June.
Sterling has fallen back versus the euro given the general pick up in sentiment towards the single currency and a bout of short covering. Meanwhile, versus the dollar, sterling remains close to five month lows seen yesterday and is expected to remain under pressure given the speculation that the Bank of England may yet resort to future quantitative easing measures to support an anemic economic recovery. UK data due for today include the final Q1 GDP report, which is not expected to show any changes to the previous estimate of growth of 0.5%. Land Registry house prices are also due.