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Euro Paves the way to Default

 
2 November 2011

The euro is trading near three week lows versus the dollar after suffering its worst two days of selling since last May as markets react to the surprising news that Greece is to hold a referendum on its latest bail out package. Global stocks also fell sharply on the announcement, which has seen risk aversion spike higher once again on fears over what lies ahead for the euro zone region. Although some in his own party disagree with what he is doing, PM Papandreou has won the backing of his cabinet to hold the vote which may not take place until early next year. The prospect of another couple of months of uncertainty as well as the ongoing threat of a domino effect for other peripherals has left markets uneasy, with the euro looking vulnerable once again as a result. Papandreou has now been called for crisis talks with Merkel and Sarkozy ahead of the G20 Summit in Cannes but faces a parliamentary confidence vote on Friday.

ADP Employment in focus; The focus should at least be off Europe this afternoon with key US data due for release and the Fed making a monetary policy statement. The ADP employment report for October, which is due at 12.15 (Irish time), should provide some useful insights ahead of Friday’s official non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to leave policy on hold when it makes its announcement at 16.30 (Irish time) but markets will be watching carefully the tone of its post meeting statement. The central bank is also due to hold a press conference and release its latest forecasts for the US economy. Markets are expecting the FOMC to lower its growth projections through to 2013, while predicting that unemployment could remain high. This could feed talk of another round of quantitative easing

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