The USD was flat against the EUR and JPY yesterday for Thanksgiving, where a complete lack of US economic reports… … helped hold volatility to a minimum.

During early trading hours, the greenback slipped to 94.95 against the JPY, and the EUR
climbed to 1.2966, amid signs of worsening economic conditions and deterioration in
investor confidence. However, the Dollar recovered this lost terrain and eased back
against its rival currencies.

Recently the USD has proven to be the beneficiary of risk aversion in spite of poor
economic news since it has been seen as a relatively safe investment during the
financial crisis. But the impact of fiscal stimulus is weighing on the nation's
balance, and is beginning to raise concerns for the USD. This has begun pushing more
investors to find refuge in the Japanese Yen, which is becoming the supplementary
safe haven currency.

Looking ahead, there is little news coming from the US market today, which is known
as Black Friday in the US, the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. Markets
are also following close developments about President-elect Barack Obama's meeting
with former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker to form a new council of advisers
to guide the US economy back into good condition.

Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from the Euro-Zone and Asia as
both will be the deciding factors in the USD's movement today; however, the recent
economic environment is suggesting that the appropriate conditions are for the
Dollar to interact with heavy volatility throughout the day as a result of increased
consumer spending on Black Friday.

* EUR
Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Lowest Since 1993
The EUR was unable to make any profit over its rival pairs after the recent
announcement by the European Commission of a stimulus plan for 200 billion EUR ($259
billion) to be injected into the economy. The EUR initially gained ground versus the
US Dollar following the rise in European stock markets, but issued a retreat after
disappointing economic data put downward pressure on the 15-nation currency.

The economic sentiment index for the region tumbled to 74.9 this month, from an
expected 78.0. This marked its lowest reading since August 1993, reflecting growing
pessimism in industry and service as weakness in the European economy continues
unabated.

The German Unemployment Change indicator registered a significant reduction in
November, falling to 10k unemployed from 23k last month; its lowest reading since
1992. As a result, the head of the Federal Labour Office warned that labor markets
would soon feel the impact of the economic downturn.

On a different note, European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet
declined to make any comments about a Euro-Zone Interest Rate cut after stating
Wednesday that the bank would cut rates next week unless there was evidence that
inflation pressures had eased. Many analysts expect the ECB to cut rates by 50 basis
points to 2.75% on Dec.4, while some economists said an even deeper cut might be
needed.

News being released from the Euro-Zone today should provide little fluctuation in
the market. However, while indicators have had less impact these past weeks due to
the financial crisis, they nevertheless still carry weight in the confidence of
investors. Any negative economic data will have the potential to cause harm to a
currency's value if it has the power to sway speculators.

* JPY
Japanese Recession May be Worse than Forecasted
Yesterday, traders did not see much volatility in JPY currency pairs. With no
economic news from the US as a result of the Thanksgiving holiday, and very few
economic indicators from Europe, the JPY remained flat against both the USD and EUR,
sticking near the 95.00 and 123.00 levels respectively.

The recent economic data from Japan shows that the second largest economy is now
heading into a deep recession. Recent reports show that industrial production is
deteriorating faster than economist had expected, and consumers have been holding
back their spending, surprising analysts. Many forecasters are now convinced that
Japan's economy is in for a deeper and longer recession than was previously thought.

* Oil
Oil Prices Expected to Continue Falling Through December
The price of Crude Oil remained relatively flat on Thursday, hovering near 53.00
dollars a barrel. This came as U.S. stocks and data on Crude Oil demand increased
worries over decreased consumption. However, Oil producers are hoping that Crude Oil
prices will find support after OPEC's meeting tomorrow. OPEC is set to talk about
whether or not they will reduce Oil production further.

Some of OPEC's members, such as Venezuela, are backing the proposal to cut Oil
production by about 1 million barrels per day in an effort to stop the price slide.
They have also not ruled out the possibility of a further cut in the future. Russia,
which is the largest oil producer outside of OPEC, and which produces around 11% of
the world's oil, is beginning to look to closer cooperation with OPEC. Russia has
presented an agreement on a joint Oil production cut which it hopes will be studied
at the OPEC meeting next month in Algeria.

Analysts are expecting Oil prices to continue heading downwards through the end of
December despite the recent threat by OPEC and Russia to cut production.

Technical News
* EUR/USD
After several failed attempts to breach the1.3000 resistance level on the 4 hour
chart, the pair is now consolidating around 1.2650 price level. The hourly studies
show mixed signals, and the daily chart's Stochastic Slow is indicating a mild
bearish direction. Waiting for a clearer signal on that pair appears to be a good
decision today.

* GBP/USD
The bullish move the pair is going through on the 4 hour level appears to have
diminishing momentum, and lacks the ability to make a significant breach above the
1.5600 resistance level. The daily chart is showing flat consolidation around the
1.5430 level with no distinct price direction and the hourlies are dwelling in
neutral territory as well. Traders are advised to wait for a clear signal on any
direction or keep out of that one today.

* USD/JPY
The daily chart is showing flat consolidation around the 95.00 level with no
distinct price direction. The 4 hour chart is showing mixed signals, and on the
hourlies the pair seem to be dwelling in neutral territory as well. Traders are
advised to wait for a clear signal on any direction before entering the market today

* USD/CHF
After a moderate bearish correction, a wide bullish channel on the daily chart
continues with no signs of a stop. The 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic is showing a
double top formation with a positive slope, indicating the possible continuation of
the upwards trend. Going long appears to be the right move today.

The Wild Card
* Gold
The daily chart implies on an upcoming bearish trend as the Slow Stochastic has just
crossed above the 80 line. On the 4 hour chart the Bollinger Bands channel narrows
which implies that a sharp volatile breach might be quite imminent.
forex traders are advised to wait until a clear breach will take place and swing.

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